US Senate

by Tom Cloyd (reviewed 2020-07-20:0056 PDT)

If our next President is a Democrat, he needs a Democratic Senate to get much done. It appears increasing likely that the Senate will indeed flip this election cycle. And “Democrats need just a net pickup of three to four seats for control of the Senate” to be theirs.1

First, a little history.

“Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races.”2 So with Biden’s clearly emerging lead in the Presidential race, flipping the Senate is a realistic prospect.

Senate Republicans up for re-election are trailing in five states. Two other Senates races - both in Georgia - are looking like they well could go to Democrats. And there are even more seats at realistic risk of flipping.2 A trainwreck for Republicans may well be shaping up.

Related to all of this is that Democratic Senatorial candidates are raising historic sums of money. “Historically, candidates who raise more money increase their chances of winning significantly. This means the more money Democrats are raking in, the better chance they have at winning a Senate majority.”1

Furthermore, it appears that this effect is stronger for Democrats than for Republicans, and while we don’t yet have exact data on fund raising for the is election, there are strong indications that the Democrats are doing quite well.1

NOTES

  1. Enten, H. (2020-07-11). Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters. CNN Politics. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/11/politics/senate-democratic-candidates-fundraising-analysis/index.html ^ ^2 ^3

  2. Olsen, H. (2020-07-08). This year’s Senate races spell disaster for the Republican Party. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/07/08/2020-senate-map-could-be-even-worse-republicans-than-they-think/ ^ ^2

 

☀   ☀   ☀